Georgia’s nationally watched U.S. Senate race remains tight, according to a new poll from Monmouth University.
Incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock has a significant lead among early voters, according to the poll, while challenger Herschel Walker is bolstered by the potential for more support among highly motivated Election Day voters.
The finds Warnock with better favorable ratings while Walker is unable to take advantage of key issues that have been helping the GOP nationally.
The poll was conducted by telephone October 20-24 with 615 Georgia registered voters, and has a margin of error of +/- 5.0 percentage points. It was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, N.J.
“Walker’s path to victory is narrow, but it’s still there,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “He needs to get enough voters to overlook their misgivings about him to come over to his support or benefit from a turnout disparity among the two parties’ base voters.
“At this point, the latter option looks like his better bet,” Murray said.
One in four potential voters have already cast their ballots in this election. These voters back Warnock (61%) over Walker (34%) by a large margin. Among other voters who intend to vote during Georgia’s early voting period, more are aligned with Warnock (37% definite and 15% probable) than Walker (28% definite and 14% probable).
Walker, however, has a large advantage among those who plan to vote on Election Day: 39% definite and 15% probable for Walker compared with just 24% definite and 10% probable for Warnock.
“It’s pretty reasonable to come up with turnout scenarios where either candidate is slightly ahead,” said Murray. “The unknown question is to what extent Republican enthusiasm on Election Day is able to overcome the Democratic advantage in early voting.”
The poll also finds that Libertarian candidate, Chase Oliver, is unknown to the vast majority of voters, with just 1% saying they will definitely support him in this election and another 9% lending their probable support.
Among voters who have already cast their ballots, Oliver is backed by 4%. If he maintains that level of support in the final vote count, a runoff election would be likely given how close the two major party candidates’ vote shares are currently, the poll said.
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